2014 Oscar Predictions

We are mere hours away from Oscar nominees being announced and you know what that means: it’s time for me to dust of my tumblr for my one and only blog post of the year. I didn’t realize until looking at my finished list that I have seen ZERO of the films listed below, so even more so than last year this is a total crapshoot. Last year only about 67% of my guesses were correct. Hopefully I can improve with this year’s entry. For what it’s worth, I have ordered each list by the how likely I think each entry is to be nominated.  Here goes nothing…

 

Best Supporting Actor:

Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club

Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave

Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips

Bradley Cooper – American Hustle

Daniel Bruhl – Rush

 

Close Calls: Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street), Tom Hanks (Saving Mr. Banks), James Gandolfini (Enough Said), James Franco (Springbreakers)

 

Best Supporting Actress:

Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle

Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave

June Squibb – Nebraska

Sally Hawkins – Blue Jasmine

Julia Roberts – August: Osage County

 

Close Calls: Oprah Winfrey (Lee Daniels’ The Butler), Jennifer Garner (Dallas Buyers Club), Sarah Paulson (12 Years a Slave)

 

Best Actress:

Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine

Sandra Bullock – Gravity

Amy Adams – American Hustle

Judi Dench – Philomena

Emma Thompson – Saving Mr. Banks

 

Close Calls: Meryl Streep (Being Meryl Streep August: Osage County)

 

Best Actor:

Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave

Leonardo Dicaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street

Bruce Dern – Nebraska

Matthew McConughey – Dallas Buyers Club

Joaquin Phoenix – Her

 

Close Calls: Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips), Robert Redford (All Is Lost), Oscar Issac (Inside Llewyn Davis), Forest Whitaker (Lee Daniels’ The Butler), Michael B. Jordan (Fruitvale Station)

 

Best Director:

Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave

Alfonso Cuaron – Gravity

David O. Russell – American Hustle

Martin Scorsese – The Wolf of Wall Street

Paul Greengrass – Captain Phillips

 

Close Calls: Alexander Payne (Nebraska), Joel and Ethan Coen (Inside Llewyn Davis), Ryan Coogler (Fruitvale Station), Jean-Marc Vallee (Dallas Buyers Club)

 

Best Picture:

12 Years a Slave

Gravity

American Hustle

The Wolf of Wall Street

Captain Phillips

Her

Dallas Buyers Club

Philomena

Inside Llewyn Davis

Nebraska

 

Close Calls: Blue Jasmine, Saving Mr. Banks, Fruitvale Station

 

Since the Academy can name between five and ten best picture nominees I have listed ten here, but I think only the top eight will be nominated.

2013 Oscar Predictions

Ok. Forgot the Oscar Nominations were coming out until about an hour ago, so this year’s predictions are a little rushed. But who knows…maybe this will be my best prognostication yet!

Best Supporting Actor:
Philip Seymor Hoffman, The Master
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Alan Arkin, Argo
Javier Bardem, Skyfall

Outside Chance: Robert DiNero (Silver Linings Playbook) Christoph Waltz and Samuel L. Jackson (Django Unchained)

Best Supporting Actress:
Quvenzhane Wallis, The Beasts of the Southern Wild
Sally Field, Lincoln
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Amy Adams, The Master

Outside Chance: Judi Dench (Skyfall)

Best Actress:
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Naomi Watts, The Impossible

Best Actor:
Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Jamie Foxx, Django Unchained
Denzel Washington, Flight
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook

Outside Chance: John Hawkes, The Sessions

Best Director:
Stephen Speilberg, Lincoln
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Ben Affleck, Argo
PT Anderson, The Master
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

Outside Chance: Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained), Wes Anderson (Moonrise Kingdom), Ang Lee (Life of Pi)

Best Picture:
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
Silver Linings Playbook
Argo
The Master
Les Miserables
Moonrise Kingdom
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Skyfall

Outside Chances: Amour, The Beasts of the Southern Wild

Once again, since there is not a concrete number of nominees, I’ve picked the max of ten, but think only the top eight on my list will receive a nod.

2012 Oscar Predictions

I’m back, America! Not that you’ve noticed, but it’s been quite a while since my last entry. Why am I suddenly ending my several months long hiatus, you ask? Because the Oscar Nominations are coming out tomorrow (fucking duh!) and it’s time for me to act like I know what I’m talking about and make my prognostications. 

I went a little overboard last year and included a lot lesser categories—mainly because I had a ton of time to kill at work—but this year I’m getting back to the basics and only including the big six (Supporting and Lead Actor and Actress, Director, and Picture). The Academy has also made a minor change to the Best Picture category by allowing anywhere between five and ten nominees, so it might be a bit harder trying to hit a moving target, but I’ll give it my best.  And to be honest, I haven’t been to nearly enough movies this year so a lot of these guesses may be complete shots In the dark…Aw, look at me. I’m ramblin’ again…Well, I hope you folks enjoy yourselves…

Best Supporting Actor:

Christopher Plummer, Beginners 

Albert Brooks, Drive

Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn 

Nick Nolte, Warrior

Jonah Hill, Moneyball

Long shots: Patton Oswalt (Young Adult), Andy Serkis (Rise of the Planet of the Apes)

Analysis: Not the strongest field this year. Hill barely edges out Oswalt because he was the best part part of a very solid movie. A lot of hype around Serkis’s Mo-cap performance, but I still have a hard time wrapping my head around a nomination going to a CGI monkey.

Best Supporting Actress:

Octavia Spencer, The Help

Berenice Bejo, The Artist

Carey Mulligan, Shame

Shailene Woodley, The Descendants 

Jessica Chastain, The Help

Long shots: Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids), Judi Dench (My Week With Marilyn)

Analysis: I suppose Bejo might fall under the Lead Actress category. Mulligan could get a nod for Drive and Chastain one for Tree of Life instead. 

Best Actress:

Viola Davis, The Help

Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady

Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin

Charlize Theron, Young Adult

Long Shots: Rooney Mara (The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo), Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)

Analysis: If Mara is on the outside looking in after a really stellar performance as Lisbeth Salander, that means that this field is really stacked from top to bottom. 

Best Actor: 

George Clooney, The Descendants

Jean Dujardin, The Artist

Michael Fassbender's Penis, Shame

Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Long Shots: Ryan Gosling (Drive), Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar)

Analysis: This is probably the category I’m most confident in, but I’ve been known to be wrong before…

Best Director:

Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist

Alexander Payne, The Descendants

Martin Scorsese, Hugo

Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris

Nicholas Winding Refn, Drive

Long Shots: Thomas Alfredson (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy), Stephen Spielberg (War Horse), David Fincher (The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo)

Analysis: …and this is probably the category I’m least confident in. 

Best Picture:

The Artist

The Descendants

The Help

Moneyball

Hugo

Midnight in Paris

Tree of Life

War Horse

Drive

The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo

Long Shots: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, We Need to Talk About Kevin

Analysis: With the flexible nominee total, I’ve picked ten movies and ordered each of the nominees by how likely it is that they are actually picked. Since this year hasn’t been the strongest, I imagine there will only be five or six nominees selected and those titles have been bolded above. 

There you have it. If you’ve made it this far, I’m glad I haven’t bored you to death. Thanks for reading. 

azizisbored:

The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo Trailer

What a dope trailer. Karen O. also needs to sing every rock song. Wow. 

Girl With the Dragon Tattoo red band trailer. Pretty awesome and it seems slightly Kubrickian, wouldn’t you say?

I don’t know if Momma was right or if, if it’s Lieutenant Dan. I don’t know if we each have a destiny, or if we’re all just floating around accidental-like on a breeze, but I, I think maybe it’s both. Maybe both is happening at the same time. — Forrest Gump
thisamarycanlife:

vanityfair:

Obviously this leaves out the best part: Bill Hader breaking character to crack up.
[Liana Maeby for Crushable]

A-mazing. Also, pretty dead on.

This is great. The only thing it’s missing is an obligatory description of one of the items as “you know, it’s that thing where a jacked (little person)” etc.

thisamarycanlife:

vanityfair:

Obviously this leaves out the best part: Bill Hader breaking character to crack up.

[Liana Maeby for Crushable]

A-mazing. Also, pretty dead on.

This is great. The only thing it’s missing is an obligatory description of one of the items as “you know, it’s that thing where a jacked (little person)” etc.

I could be wrong, but this show actually could be decent. And yes, that’s Lucius Malfoy from the Harry Potter movies (Jason Isaacs). I’m not saying that I will be giving “Awake” a chance, but out of all of the other new shows debuting this fall, this will be the one I would be most likely to tune in to (as of right now; that could change). Also, “Lost” fans may recognize the kid (Dylan Minnette) as Jack’s son during season 6. I wonder how he feels about having two of his biggest television roles to date being based in alternate realities. 

Kenna - Hell Bent

This is one of my favorite songs and it has a very cool video to go along with it, which I haven’t seen in ages. I encourage you to take a look and I swear it’s not a stupid as otters juggling

squillace:

Here we go, much better.

Ron Swanson is a god. And this might not have even been the best part of the episode!

squillace:

Here we go, much better.

Ron Swanson is a god. And this might not have even been the best part of the episode!

(via squillace-deactivated20130304)